Математическое моделирование и оптимизация бизнес-процессов на основе комплексного критерия «шансы — риски»

Alexander G. Madera

Authors

Alexander G. Madera Scientific Research Institute for Systemic Research of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7237-8967

Abstract

The modelling of business processes of a new product creation now is mainly descriptive. Such approach does not allow to create a mathematical model and proceed with quantitative optimization of processes. As a result, it is impossible to design business processes properly. The article considers mathematical methods and models for quantitative optimization of manufacturing, supporting and service business processes under uncertainty. It embraces ambiguity of future economic conditions, uncertainty of a company’s financial resources, input prices uncertainty and demand for a new product uncertainty. The suggested mathematical models can be used as the basis for the development of specific software for business processes design.

Keywords:

business process, mathematical model, simulation, optimization, uncertainty, complex criterion, chances, risks

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

ЛИТЕРАТУРА НА РУССКОМ ЯЗЫКЕ

Босуэлл Дж. 2003. Жизнь Сэмюэля Джонсона. Пер. с англ. М.: Текст.

Гиг Дж., ван. 1981. Прикладная общая теория систем. Т. 2. Пер. с англ. М.: Мир.

Кейнс Дж. М. 2012. Общая теория занятости, процента и денег. Пер. с англ. М.: Гелиос АРВ.

Клейнер Г. Б. 1986. Производственные функции: Теория, методы, применение. М.: Финансы и статистика.

Климанов Д. Е., Третьяк О. А. 2014. Бизнес-модели: основные направления исследований и поиски содержательного фундамента концепций. Российский журнал менеджмента 12 (3): 107–130.

Мадера А. Г. 2009. Моделирование и принятие решений в менеджменте. М.: ЛКИ / URSS.

Мадера А. Г. 2014а. Интервально стохастическая неопределенность оценок в многокритериальных задачах принятия решений. Искусственный интеллект и принятие решений (3): 105–115.

Мадера А. Г. 2014б. Риски и шансы: неопределенность, прогнозирование и оценка. М.: КРАСАНД / URSS.

Мадера А. Г. 2014в. Риски и шансы: принятие решений в условиях неопределенного будущего. Менеджмент в России и за рубежом (2): 12–22.

Международный стандарт ISO 9000:2000. Системы менеджмента качества. Основные положения и словарь Системы менеджмента качества.

Петрусевич А. В. 2011. Оптимальное управление объемами выпуска в условиях неопределенности спроса. Российский журнал менеджмента 9 (4): 35–50.

Портер М. 2001. Конкуренция. Пер. с англ. М.: Издательский дом «Вильямс».

Робсон М., Уллах Ф. 2003. Реинжиниринг бизнес-процессов. Пер. с англ. М.: Юнити.

Сломан Дж. 2006. Основы экономики. Пер. с англ. М.: Проспект.

Харрингтон Д., Эсселин К. С., Нимвеген Х., ван. 2002. Оптимизация бизнес-процессов. Документирование, анализ, управление, оптимизация. Пер. с англ. СПб.: Азбука.

REFERENCES IN LATIN ALPHABET

Aalst W. M. P. van der. 1998. The application of Petri-nets to workflow management. Journal of Circuits, Systems and Computers 8 (1): 21–66.

Ahmadikatouli A., Aboutalebi M. 2011. New evolutionary approach to business process model optimization. Proceedings of the International Multi-Conference of Engineers and Computer Scientists. IMESC, March 16–18, Hong Kong.

Ahmadikatouli A., Motameni H. 2015. Enrichment of object oriented Petri net and object Z aiming at business process optimization. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications 6 (7): 13–19.

Hofacker I., Vetschera R. 2001. Algorithmical approachs to business process design. Computer & Operations Research 28: 1253–1275.

Keynes J. M. 1921. Treatise on Probability. MacMillan & Co: London.

Koubarakis M., Plexousakis D. 2002. A formal framework for business process modelling and design. Information Systems 27 (5): 299–319.

Madera A. 2015. Interval uncertainty of estimates and judgments of subject in decision making in multi-criteria problems. International Journal of the Analytic Hierarhy Process 7 (2): 337–348.

Powell S. G., Schwaninger M., Trimble C . 2001. Measurement and control of business processes. System Dynamics Review 17 (1): 63–91.

Raposo A. B ., Magalhaes L . P., Ricarte I. L . M. 2000. Petri nets based coordination mechanisms for multi-flow environments. International Journal of Computer Systems Science and Engineering 15 (5): 315–326.

Sawicki P., Sawicka H. 2014. Logistics process improvement using simulation and stochastic multiple criteria decision aiding. Procedia — Social and Behavioral Sciences 111: 213–223.

Seuring S. 2013. A review of modeling approaches for sustainable supply chain management. Decision Support Systems 54 (4): 1513–1520.

Valiris G., Glykas M. 2004. Business analysis metrics for business process redesign. Business Process Management Journal 10 (4): 445–480.

Vergidis K., Tiwari A. 2008. Business process analysis and optimization: Beyond reengineering. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, Cybernatics — Part C: Application and Reviews: 1–14.

Wibig M. 2013. Dynamic programming and genetic algorithm for business processes optimization. International Journal of Intelligent Systems and Applications 5 (1): 44–51.

Zhang Oi, Shah N ., Wassick J., Helling R., Egerschot P. van. 2014. Sustainable supply chain optimisation: An industrial case study. Computers & Industrial Engineering 74: 68–83.

Translation of references in Russian into English

Boswell J. 2003. Life of Samuel Johnson. Transl. from English. M.: Text.

Gigch J. 1981. Applied General Systems Theory. V. 2. Transl. from English. M.: Mir.

Keynes G. M. 2012. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Transl.from English. M.: Gelios ARV.

Kleiner G. B . 1986. Production Functions: Theory, Methods, Applications. M.: Financy i Statistika.

Klimanov D. E ., Tretiak O. A. 2014. Business models: Major research directions and search of conceptual foundations. Rossijskij zhurnal menedzhmenta 12 (3): 107–130.

Madera A. G. 2009. Modelling and Decision-Making in Management. M.: LCI / URSS.

Madera A. G. 2014a. Interval stochastic uncertainty estimates mnogokriteri-cial decisionmaking problems. Iskusstvennyj intellekt i prinyatie reshenij (3): 105–115.

Madera A. G. 2014b. Risks and Chances: Uncertainty, Forecasting and Evaluation. M.: KRASAND / URSS.

Madera A. G. 2014v. Risks and chances: Decision-making under uncertainty. Menedzhment v Rossii i za rubezhom (2): 12–22.

International Standard ISO 9000: 2000. Quality management systems. Fundamentals and vocabulary of quality management systems.

Petrusevich A. V. 2011. Optimal production output decisions under demand uncertainty. Rossijskij zhurnal menedzhmenta 9 (4): 35–50.

Porter M. 2001. The Competition. Transl. from English. M.: Publishing House “Williams”.

Robson M., Ullah P. H. 2003. Business Process Reengineering. Transl. from English. M.: Unity.

Sloman J. 2006. Principles of Economics. Transl. from English. M.: Prospect.

Harrington H., Esseling K. C ., van Nimwegen H. 2002. Business Process Improvement Workbook: Documentation, Analysis, Design, and Management of Business Process Improvement. Transl. from English. SPb.: Azbuka.